Deuba and the systematic decay of Nepali Congress

Kathmandu: The Nepali Congress is currently embroiled in an intense internal dispute.

The party’s two General Secretaries, Gagan Thapa and Bishwo Prakash Sharma, have led a campaign for a special convention, for which January 11–12 dates have been announced. Party President Sher Bahadur Deuba’s establishment faction has rejected it and appears determined to block the convention. Instead, the Deuba camp has scheduled a regular convention for May, after the March elections.

This power struggle has its roots in the September Gen Z movement, after which a smooth leadership transition and generational renewal were expected. But the Deuba faction stuck to its guns, leading to this bitter dispute.

The Nepali Congress last held its general convention in December 2021, when Deuba was elected president for a second term. Under party statute, no individual may serve as party president more than twice, making this his final term.

The country’s oldest and largest party has perhaps never been as weak as it is under Deuba’s leadership. From the anti-Rana movement in 1950 through the promulgation of the Constitution in 2015, the Congress played a leading role in every major democratic transformation. Following the backlash and humiliation after the Gen-Z movement, however, the party has been left visibly debilitated.

For the first time in its history, under Deuba, the Congress came to be seen as a center of counter-revolution and a force opposing popular movements.

Deuba’s rise through division

Deuba first competed for party leadership at the 10th general convention in Pokhara in January 2001, where he received 507 votes against Girija Prasad Koirala’s 936. By the 11th general convention in August 2005, Deuba was leading a separate party — Nepali Congress (Democratic) — after breaking away from the Koirala leadership.

In 2002, while Deuba was prime minister, GP Koirala expelled him from party membership. Deuba responded by formally splitting the party and becoming president of Nepali Congress (Democratic). The split, however, was short-lived. The party reunited with the parent Congress in 2007 without contesting a single election independently.

Deuba became the second leader in Congress history — after Matrika Prasad Koirala — to split the party, and the first to do so after the restoration of democracy in 1990.

While the split helped Deuba preserve his personal power, it also contributed to the dissolution of the House of Representatives and created conditions conducive to King Gyanendra’s coup. The election Deuba announced in 2002, after dissolving a House elected just three years earlier, never took place. The country instead endured the escalation of the Maoist insurgency, a state of emergency, a royal takeover, and the king’s direct rule. These episodes remain indelible stains on Deuba’s political record.

After reunification, Deuba lost to Sushil Koirala at the 12th general convention in September 2010. His long-standing ambition to lead the unified Congress materialized only in 2016, when he defeated Ram Chandra Paudel at the 14th general convention.

Had party statutes been followed, the 15th general convention should have been held by last December, and the Congress would by now have elected a new leadership.

Deuba has now led the party for exactly ten years.

How Deuba systematically weakened Congress, one tendency at a time

1. Non-ideological, technical leadership

Deuba is neither a compelling speaker nor an effective organizer. He is not an intellectual debater or a strong policy writer. He plays no visible role in synthesizing ideas or setting political agendas responsive to changing national or international conditions. His speeches, statements, and interviews rarely resonate with the broader public. He seldom travels extensively or engages in sustained public outreach.

Measured against the party’s historic leaders, Deuba stands apart. He is not a thinker or writer like BP Koirala, not a charismatic revolutionary like Suvarna Shamsher, not a saintly moral figure like Krishna Prasad Bhattarai, and not a self-sacrificing warrior like Ganeshman Singh.

Deuba’s leadership is largely non-ideological and managerial. He avoids ideological debate and mass engagement, yet has remained in power through technical control and organizational maneuvering. This trait has sustained his authority but hollowed out the party’s political vitality.

2. Factional grip over the party

Deuba’s central strength lies in maintaining tight control over his faction and, through it, the party. Since the mid-1990s, he has inherited and consolidated the factional legacy of Ganeshman Singh and Krishna Prasad Bhattarai. His ability to keep this faction intact for nearly three decades is unusual.

While this has made Deuba powerful within the party, it has weakened the Congress in the eyes of the public, reducing it to a faction-driven organization rather than a national political force.

3. Bending to the communists

Ideological rivalry with communists was once the Nepali Congress’s greatest strength. Before Deuba, no Congress president entered electoral alliances with communist parties.

That changed with the 2017 local elections, when Deuba embraced alliances with communist forces. The effort to support the daughter of Maoist Centre chair Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” in Chitwan deeply embarrassed the party. Voters who had long rejected communist ideology began to drift away, a fragmentation that later contributed to the rise of the Rastriya Swatantra Party.

Over time, repeated alliances reversed the political narrative: instead of communists following Congress, Congress came to be seen as following the communists.

4. Erosion of party’s democratic image

The Congress once enjoyed a solid support base rooted in its democratic legacy. Voters who rejected both monarchy and communism naturally gravitated toward the party.

After 1990, the Congress increasingly appeared status-quo oriented. Under Deuba, this stagnation became entrenched. The party failed to grasp the political importance of federalism, inclusion, and social justice in time, leading to a significant erosion of support in Madhesh, where democratic aspirations were especially strong.

Under Deuba, ideological distinctions between Congress and communist parties blurred. Despite the Maoists leading the republican transition, the Congress failed to position itself as a clear democratic counterweight to royalist forces. Even today, royalist and Hindu-state sympathies persist within the party, including among prominent families.

Neglect of Madhesh issues, repeated cooperation with communists, and unresolved royalist hangovers have blurred the Congress’s democratic identity. Misgovernance, corruption, excessive central control, and entrenched factionalism have further driven voters toward alternative democratic options.

5. Cozying up to Oli-style politics

Beyond alliances with communists, Deuba increasingly appeared aligned with KP Sharma Oli, chair of the CPN-UML.

After the collapse of the 2018 communist alliance and Oli’s two unconstitutional dissolutions of parliament, public frustration with Oli’s governance was widespread. Yet Deuba showed little resolve in opposing these actions. Even as street protests denounced democratic backsliding, Deuba pursued power-sharing arrangements with Oli.

Deuba later justified alliance with Oli in the name of “political stability,” despite the possibility of a Congress-led government. His desire to become prime minister for a sixth time overrode concerns about Oli’s unpopularity and governance failures.

Even at the height of public anger, Congress could have withdrawn support and emerged as a democratic alternative. Instead, Deuba remained politically entangled with Oli, choosing accommodation over confrontation.

Following the September 8–9 protests, Deuba briefly appointed Vice President Purna Bahadur Khadka as acting head. Soon after, however, he again signaled openness to cooperation with Oli and the UML, fueling speculation about future electoral alliances.

6. Blocking generational change

At the 14th general convention, both general secretaries were elected from outside Deuba’s panel—an unmistakable signal of generational pressure within the party.

Yet the Deuba leadership failed to understand the aspirations of a digitally connected, globally aware generation. This disconnect culminated in the mishandling of the Gen-Z movement.

Following the movement, Deuba should have convened the 15th general convention within Mangsir and overseen an orderly transfer of leadership. His second four-year term had already expired under party rules. That moment presented an opportunity for renewal, reorganization, and a dignified exit.

Instead, Deuba resisted even a special convention supported by a large section of party representatives, deepening the crisis and postponing inevitable change.

7. Loss of international credibility

Before Deuba’s presidency, the Nepali Congress enjoyed strong international standing, with close ties to India, the United States, Europe, Israel, and Japan, while balancing relations with China and advocating liberal democracy and human rights.

Among Nepal’s political parties, Congress historically enjoyed the broadest international trust and acceptance.

Under Deuba, this credibility steadily eroded. His leadership failed to generate sustained engagement or interest from major international actors, including India, China, the U.S., the EU, the UN, and Japan.

Global political dynamics began shifting after 2010, but Congress failed to adapt. Following the rise of the BJP and Narendra Modi in India in 2014, earlier modes of engagement no longer worked, yet no effective strategy emerged.

Under the combined influence of KP Oli’s foreign policy approach and Arzu Rana’s tenure as foreign minister, Nepal’s external relations suffered from imbalance, inconsistency, and declining trust. Continued cooperation with an unpopular leader like Oli unnecessarily strained relations with neighboring and friendly countries, further undermining the Congress’s international standing.

Nepali version of the article